We begin an occasional series on how America’s states are faring in the downturn with Nevada, the ultimate in boom and bust
现开辟不定期专题，连续探讨美国各州在经济危机中的表现如何。本期先来关注经历了繁荣和萧条的美国缩影——内华达州。
FOR a glimpse of the old, confident Las Vegas, visit its newest hotel. Steve Wynn’s vaguely Chinese-themed Encore, which opened in December, is packed with heavy draperies and well-drilled staff. It has thousands of indoor flowers, flat-screen televisions in the bathrooms and a restaurant where the decor changes every half-hour or so. One of its boutiques sells a bejewelled object adorned with a butterfly for $269. Closer inspection reveals it to be a toothbrush-holder.
要想一瞥古老而充满自信的拉斯维加斯风采，只需到这里最新的酒店一看便知。在Steve Wynn12月份新开的略带中国主题的“流连忘返”酒店里，到处可以看到垂挂的窗饰，训练有素的员工。卫生间内摆放着上千盆室内花卉，还配有平板电视，餐厅内的装饰大约每隔半小时便会发生变化。在酒店内的一处精品店里，一件带有蝴蝶图案、镶满珠宝的东西标价269美元，可仔细一看才发现是个牙刷架。
No doubt it seemed like a good idea two-and-a-half years ago, when work began on the hotel. Today it seems delusional. Nevada’s most distinctive industry is slumping as Americans fasten their wallets. Despite the opening of several big casinos, total gambling revenues have declined by 15% in a year. Developers are frantically scaling back projects, or even mothballing them. Still, two huge casino-hotels will open this year, boosting supply at the worst possible moment.
两年半前开始修建该酒店时，人们似乎都认为这是个好主意。可眼下看来那不过是错觉。内华达州最有特色的产业一片萧条，因为美国人都收紧了钱夹子。尽管新开张了几家大型赌场，可博彩总收入在一年里下降了15%。开发商大幅减少开工项目，甚至暂停在建工程。不过，今年仍会有两家超大型赌场酒店开张，在这个或许是最糟糕的时刻加大供应。
The tourism slump coincides with another, longer-running crisis. Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and 70% of the state’s population, suffered America’s third-highest foreclosure rate in December, according to RealtyTrac. Property prices in the metropolis have fallen by 41% from their peak and show little sign of stabilising. Tom McCormick of Astoria Homes, the biggest locally-owned builder until the housing collapse made such comparisons moot, says it is not possible to compete with the bank-owned properties flooding the market. As a result, construction has virtually stopped.
祸不单行。内华达州旅游业的萧条，正赶上一场酝酿已久的危机。据Realty Trac调查显示，拥有该州70%的人口、下辖拉斯维加斯的Clark区，在12月份的丧失抵押品赎回权比例创美国第三高记录。该市房地产价格与巅峰时期相比下跌了41%，而且毫无停止下滑的势头。Tom McCormick拥有的Astoria Homes一直是本地建造商中最大的公司，直到房地产行业的崩溃让这种排名不复存在。他说，跟大量涌入市场的银行所属房地产展开竞争是不自量力。因此，房地产的建设实际上已经停止了。
Such a quick decline (see chart) would be painful anywhere. In a state with a tradition of boosterism it has caused something of an existential crisis. “We thought the only business cycle was up,” laments John Restrepo, a Las Vegas consultant. Perhaps the most shocking news to locals is that Clark County’s population, which more than doubled between 1990 and 2007, has declined slightly in the past year.
如此的剧降（见下表）在任何地方都是件痛苦的事情。而在历来被称作“美国经济助推器”的内华达州，这却引发了一场生存危机。拉斯维加斯的咨询师John Restrepo感叹道：“我们还以为唯一的商业周期就是不断向前。”或许对当地人来说最震惊的消息，莫过于从1990年到2007涨了一倍还多的Clark区的人口，在去年出现了小幅下滑。
Yet some boosters remain. “We have the highest foreclosure rate, but that’s because we grew so quickly,” says Oscar Goodman, Las Vegas’s feisty mayor—which is largely true. Mr Goodman disagrees with analysts who say the city will not soon return to double-digit economic growth. He points to plans for yet more casinos and public buildings, including a Mafia museum that is now a symbol of the misuse of federal stimulus money.
但仍有人对此表示乐观。精力充沛的拉斯维加斯市长Oscar Goodman说道：“我们有最高的丧失抵押品赎回权比例，但那是因为增长过快的缘故。”这话基本上没错。Goodman不同意分析人士所说的该市不会很快恢复两位数的经济增长率。他提到仍计划兴建更多的赌场和共用建筑，包括一座黑手党的展览馆。但这座展览馆现在已成了滥用联邦刺激方案资金的象征。
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Oddly, some of the most pragmatic people in town these days are casino owners. Mr Wynn packed his new hotel by pricing the rooms cheaply, even though he knew this would force down rates in his other hotels. Expect a further retreat from luxury this year. Las Vegas’s nimble hoteliers can replace filet mignon with shrimp cocktail almost as quickly as they can take your money. A focus on low-rollers might seem to be an admission of defeat. Yet it is precisely what the state needs.
奇怪的是，这里最务实的人竟然是赌场的老板们。Wynn以低廉的房间标价来吸引人们入住他新开张的酒店，尽管他知道这会迫使其他酒店也下调房价。估计今年Wynn还会进一步放弃豪华型酒店的经营理念。拉斯维加斯的酒店老板们头脑灵活，不仅能快速掏空你的钱包，用鸡尾酒虾换掉菲力牛排的速度也同样令人咂舌。而赌场将重点放在了小筹码赌客身上，似乎说明他们承认了失败。但这正是该州所需要的。
During the boom years the exuberance and folly to be seen on the Las Vegas strip were matched by the ludicrous homes that went up in suburban Nevada. Both depended on cheap, available credit; both obscured the state’s real strengths. A big reason for Clark County’s explosive growth in the past two decades is that it was a great place to be what Americans call middle-class. People moved to the region not for the nightclubs and celebrity chefs but because they could afford a medium-sized house and a garden where they could barbecue almost year-round. And, of course, because there were jobs to be had.
在经济蓬勃发展的年代，拉斯维加斯一带到处可见繁荣的景象和华而不实的建筑，与之相配的还有内华达郊区建起的一座座不协调的住房。这些都是靠廉价且唾手可得的贷款建起来的，但他们忽视了本州的真正实力。Clark区之所以在过去二十年内产生爆炸性的发展，一个很大的理由就是，对于想一跃成为美国所称的中产阶级的那些人来说，这里是绝佳的场所。人们不是为了夜总会和名厨来到这里，而是因为他们在这里能买得起一座中型的别墅，买得起一座几乎全年都能在里面吃烧烤的花园。当然，还因为来这里能找到工作。
Nevada now needs humdrum jobs more than glitzy casinos. Some promising sources exist. The potential for solar power in southern Nevada is enormous, while northern Nevada has huge geothermal reserves. As Mr Restrepo points out, all those casinos have nurtured gaming developers and lighting designers, who can export their expertise to other states. Reno has turned itself into a distribution hub.
内华达眼下更需要普通的就业岗位而不是光彩夺目的赌场。一些人许诺存在就业的来源。内华达南部地区的太阳能潜力巨大，而北部拥有丰富的地热储量。如Restrepo指出的那样，那些赌场养活了很多游戏开发商和照明设计师，他们可以向其他州出口其专业技能。如雷诺市已经摇身一变成为了集散中心。
Yet two obstacles stand in the way of economic diversification. The first is Nevada’s carefully cultivated reputation for lawlessness. Some whisper that Las Vegas’s potent marketing campaign (“What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas”) carries the wrong message to a businessman thinking of relocating from Indiana or Utah.
然而，摆在经济多元化道路的前面还有两道障碍。首先是内华达州精心培养的法律宽松之名。有人私下里说拉斯维加斯强大的市场宣传攻势（“What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas”）向打算从印第安纳州或是犹他州搬迁过来的商务人士传达了错误的信号。
The second problem is political. Nevada has long been a low-tax, low-services state. But its culture is changing. The working-class Latinos who have moved there, often from California, are less libertarian and keener on public services than older whites. In November voters in Reno and Las Vegas approved an increase in hotel taxes to pay for schools. They also handed control of the state Senate to Democrats for the first time since 1993. The new political majority will need to keep the state attractive to business. The worst outcome for Nevada is that it acquires California’s taxes and dismal business climate but not its talent pool or coastal breezes.
其次是政治问题。内华达一直是实行低税率、低服务的州。但这里的文化正在发生改变。通常从加州移居这里的拉美裔工人阶层，跟老一辈的白人相比不太属于自由派，他们更热衷于公共服务。11月份，雷诺市和拉斯维加斯的选民们同意了增加酒店税来用于教育开支的做法。他们还将该州参议员的席位交给了民主党人，这种情况自1993年以来尚属首次。新的多数派政党需要做的是吸引企业来这里安家落户。最坏的结果，就怕内华达州换来的是加州的高税率和糟糕的商业环境，而不是那里人才济济和海风徐徐的良好氛围。